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Smoking is not back. Only 5.6% of Australians smoke daily — a record low.

By Dr HB Lo, FACRRM 4 min read
Verdict Yes — worth knowing about

Australian daily smoking prevalence has fallen to 5.6% — a historic low — despite media claims of a recent comeback. Research from the University of Sydney and the University of Melbourne published this week directly addresses the misconception, showing that the long-term decline in smoking rates has continued uninterrupted.

For general practice, this matters two ways: it is a genuine public health success built on decades of policy and cessation support, and it highlights that the perception of smoking as "normal again" — if it reaches patients who smoke — could undermine motivation to quit.

What just happened

Two researchers — Becky Freeman from the University of Sydney and Michelle Jongenelis from the University of Melbourne — have published a piece this week that is doing something unusual in health journalism: it is correcting the narrative before it causes harm.

The claim circulating in sections of Australian media: smoking is making a comeback. The reality: 5.6% of Australians smoke daily. A record low. The long decline in smoking prevalence that began when evidence of harm landed in the 1960s and accelerated through decades of Australian policy is still continuing.

The researchers are not dismissing the topic. Nicotine pouches are genuinely a new issue. Youth vaping trends are genuinely a new issue. But “smoking is back” — meaning combustible cigarettes, the product responsible for tobacco’s catastrophic disease burden — is not supported by the data.

The both-and

Why the “comeback” narrative exists

There are real things happening in the nicotine landscape that can be read, loosely, as smoking’s return. Vaping among young Australians increased significantly over several years before regulatory action tightened. Nicotine pouches — tobacco-free products delivered sublingually — are a newer entrant. And social media has amplified certain aesthetics, including images of cigarettes, in ways that can make smoking seem more visible than prevalence data would suggest.

These are legitimate concerns. Youth nicotine addiction via any delivery route carries significant risk, and the public health community is right to take vaping and nicotine pouch uptake seriously.

But the combustible cigarette — the product that drives lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, COPD, and the other conditions in tobacco’s disease burden — is being used by fewer Australians than at any point since records began. The narrative and the data are pointing in different directions.

What 5.6% actually represents

The 5.6% daily smoking figure comes from robust national survey data. To understand the magnitude of the achievement, context helps. In 1980, approximately 34% of Australians smoked daily. By the turn of the century it was around 15%. By the time Australia introduced plain packaging in 2012 — a global first — it was around 14%. It is now 5.6%.

The policy history behind that decline is not glamorous. It is tax increases, graphic health warnings, smoke-free public spaces legislation, advertising bans, and general practice-based cessation support backed by subsidised pharmacotherapy on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. None of these measures produced rapid, visible change. All of them contributed to the cumulative decline.

Why the narrative matters for clinical practice

Media framing shapes how people think about their own behaviour. A person who currently smokes and is ambivalent about quitting is not helped by a cultural narrative that normalises smoking as “back.” It becomes part of the cognitive backdrop against which change feels less urgent or less achievable.

The Freeman and Jongenelis piece matters beyond its statistics because it is explicitly naming the gap between media representation and reality. General practice has a role in this too: brief, consistent, non-judgmental advice from a GP at opportunistic points in care significantly improves quit rates — not because a single conversation produces change, but because it adds to the cumulative weight of reasons to try.

My two cents

Two things are true at once here.

First: the smoking rate decline is a genuine public health success, and it is worth saying that clearly. Tobacco control in Australia has been persistent, evidence-backed, and politically unpopular in its earlier stages. The result — 5.6% daily smoking prevalence — is not luck. It is a policy outcome.

Second: the 5.6% who still smoke daily are not a footnote. Tobacco remains the leading preventable cause of death in Australia. Every person in that 5.6% faces materially elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, COPD, and other cancers. The decline in prevalence does not reduce individual risk. It just means fewer people are exposed to it.

For women in the 40–50 age range who smoke: this is the decade when cardiovascular risk starts compounding. Smoking interacts with perimenopause (earlier menopause, more severe vasomotor symptoms, worse cardiovascular risk profile from combined factors) in ways that make cessation particularly worthwhile at this life stage. It is not too late — within a year of stopping, cardiovascular risk falls significantly. Within ten years, it approaches that of someone who never smoked.

If you smoke and want support, your GP can prescribe combination therapy (nicotine replacement plus varenicline or bupropion) that significantly outperforms willpower alone. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme subsidises these medications. The Quitline (13 78 48) provides free telephone-based support. These are real resources. They work.

The 5.6% figure is evidence that the system can produce change at scale. Whether it produces change for any particular individual depends on what happens in the next consultation.

Verdict: yes — worth knowing about.

Sources cited

  1. Freeman B, Jongenelis M. “Despite claims smoking has made a comeback, just 5.6% of Australians now smoke daily.” The Conversation, 16 July 2026. https://theconversation.com/despite-claims-smoking-has-made-a-comeback-just-5-6-of-australians-now-smoke-daily-287298
  2. AIHW — Tobacco smoking (Australia’s Health). https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-health/smoking-tobacco-use
  3. Quit.org.au — Quitting support. https://www.quit.org.au/

Frequently asked questions

  • Does this mean smoking is no longer a significant health risk in Australia?

    No. Although far fewer Australians smoke daily than in previous decades, tobacco remains the leading preventable cause of death in Australia. The 5.6% who do smoke daily carry substantially elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and a range of other cancers. The record low prevalence is a policy success, but it does not reduce the individual risk for people who currently smoke. If you smoke and want support to stop, speak with your GP — combination therapy (nicotine replacement plus medication) with brief advice from a clinician significantly improves quit rates.

  • What does the research say actually caused the long decline in Australian smoking rates?

    The Australian tobacco control story is one of sustained, layered policy effort: progressive tax increases that made cigarettes significantly more expensive, plain packaging legislation (Australia was the first country globally to implement this, in 2012), graphic health warnings, advertising bans, smoke-free public spaces legislation, and GP-delivered brief cessation advice backed by subsidised pharmacotherapy on the PBS. No single measure drove the decline — the cumulative effect of decades of consistent policy did. The 5.6% figure represents a reduction from around 34% in 1980 and around 15% at the start of this century.