Bone health · 10-year fracture risk · Australian-calibrated FRAX
Your 10-year fracture risk is one number — but the strongest thing that pushes it up is usually a bone you've already broken, and most people are never told that.
This is an Australian-calibrated FRAX estimate, reproduced for education. A few quick details, worked out on your device. Nothing you type leaves your browser. It works even if you've never had a bone scan.
This estimates future risk over years — it can't tell if something is wrong right now. If you've just had a fall or think you've broken something, see a doctor today.
FRAX is calibrated on sex recorded at birth because it estimates bone biology, not identity. If this doesn't fit you, your GP can interpret the number in your context — we'd rather be useful than pretend the tool is something it isn't.
Generated · drhblo.com/tools/fracture-risk
This is an approximate preview, not the official FRAX-Australia calculation — your GP will run the validated tool. The % action line is from the 2024 RACGP / Healthy Bones Australia guideline.
Major bone fracture — 10-year risk
Hip fracture — 10-year risk
What this number doesn't capture.
FRAX (Australia) is a population estimate, not your personal fortune. Two honest limits:
- It can run low. In Australian data, FRAX underestimated real fractures in people with thinner bones (osteopenia/osteoporosis) — so a number under the line doesn't mean "safe". (Geelong Osteoporosis Study)
- It ignores falls. FRAX doesn't ask how often you fall, and it only counts whether you've broken a bone, not how many times. The Australian Garvan calculator does both — your GP may use that one too.
A number here is a reason to ask, never a reason to relax.
- My estimated 10-year fracture risk is %. Does that warrant a bone-density (DXA) scan?
- I've had a previous fracture / a parent broke a hip — does that change what you'd recommend?
- Would the Garvan calculator — which also counts my falls — give a different picture?
Email this one-page fracture-risk summary to bring to your GP.
A clean printable with your number, the guideline line, and the three questions to ask — ready for your appointment.
Your details are worked out on your device and aren't stored or sent anywhere. If you email or print the summary, only the summary is included.
Sources cited
- 2024 RACGP / Healthy Bones Australia osteoporosis guideline — treatment thresholds (10-year major-fracture risk >20%, hip >3%): MJA, Wong et al. 2025 · full text Wiley · PMC12088310
- FRAX (Australia) calculator — University of Sheffield, country = Australia (country=9) · tool home frax.shef.ac.uk/FRAX
- FRAX (Australia) vs Garvan predictive performance / underestimation in osteopenia-osteoporosis — Geelong Osteoporosis Study, Osteoporosis International (Springer) · PubMed 31317250
- Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (includes falls; counts prior fractures) — Garvan Institute
- Fracture-risk prediction & decision to treat low bone density (AU GP context) — RACGP AJGP 2021
- FRAX inputs / clinical risk factors overview — IOF / Sheffield FRAX overview, PMC10904566
Threshold figures (10-year major-fracture >20%, hip >3%) and the FRAX-AU calibration verified 2026-06-09 via WebSearch against the MJA 2024 RACGP/Healthy Bones guideline, the Sheffield FRAX tool, and the Geelong Osteoporosis Study validation. Re-verify before go-live and on each major rebuild.
Build note: the on-device estimate is a transparent FRAX-style surrogate model used for the educational preview only; before go-live drhblo will embed/iframe or licence the official Sheffield FRAX-Australia algorithm under Sheffield's terms — licensing is a human/build gate to confirm before ship. Awaiting Dr HB Lo clinical sign-off of the three printed questions, the threshold-framing strings, the risk-driver ranking, and the honesty-panel limits (noindex until signed off).